10+ Predictions For '25

Hey, it this thing still on?

It’s been a while since I added a new column to this site, in fact last year’s 10 Predictions was the last time I wrote here.

Most of my NASCAR content has shifted over to The Harry Loomis Show on YouTube. You can check the Videos tab on this site to view that show as well.

That said, we have a tradition here of going out on a limb and making some predictions for the upcoming season, and to quote Letterkenny, “You don’t f*** with tradition.”

So here we go, 10 Predictions for the top three divisions of NASCAR, starting with a pair of snakebitten drivers.

1. Sheldon Creed And Daniel Hemric Both Score Wins

Predicting Sheldon Creed to win is another tradition we honor here, as this is the fourth straight season he makes his way here. There’s no way I can get this wrong four years straight, right? If you watched him perform last year, it almost defies logic that he is still waiting on his first Xfinity series win. He finds himself on his third team in three years, now with the Haas Factory Team. One thing he has going for him, in my opinion, is the return of WWT Raceway to the Xfinity schedule in September. Creed has owned that track, with an ARCA win in 2018 and two truck series victories. He will win a race this year, guaranteed.

Now let’s talk about Daniel Hemric, whom I believe was one of the best signings of the offseason. He will be wheeling Bill McAnally’s No. 19 truck that Christian Eckes won eight times in across the past two years. Hemric did about everything Kaulig Racing could have asked of him in the Cup series last year and now has a chance to run one of the best trucks in the series. We have seen how strong he can be in the right equipment, and I believe that will be shown once again this year. Hemric will be a real contender in the Truck series championship fight.

2. The New Playoff Waiver Rule Gets Tested

In case you missed this rule change, changes were made to playoff waivers in the offseason. If a driver receives a playoff waiver, they forfeit all current and future playoff points they may accrue. This is essentially a direct response to Kyle Larson missing the Coca-Cola 600 to run the Indianapolis 500. It sounds clear, but there is an exception. According to Jayski.com, “Exceptions to the forfeit of Playoff points includes medical reason (driver medical, birth of a child, family emergency, etc.) and age restrictions.” The medical reason could be a point of contention, does that refer to situation like Chase Elliott breaking his leg and missing months, or just a driver having to miss a race like Austin Dillon and Jimmie Johnson testing positive for Covid-19 in 2020? What about injuries and suspensions? There seems to be a lot left to determine with this rule, and I won’t be surprised to see it get tested this year.

3. Two Truck Series Drivers Earn 2026 Cup Rides

It’s strange for two of the best prospects in NASCAR to be preparing for their third seasons in the Truck series, but that is the case with Corey Heim and Chandler Smith. Whereas Heim has been arguably the series’ best driver over the last two years, Smith returns to the series after two years in Xfinity. Both of these drivers are Cup ready if they could find the right landing spot, and I think their time will come soon. Heim has already made select starts in Cup for both Legacy Motor Club and 23XI Racing, whereas Smith made a smart move in going to Front Row Motorsports. They can help their cases out by winning often, something they are both more than capable of.

4. Crown Jewel Winners

Once again, I’m going to take a stab at guessing the four crown jewel winners. In three years of this practice, only one pick has won (Denny Hamlin, 2022 Coca-600) and one driver got suspended for an accident in said race (Chase Elliott, 2023 Coca-Cola 600). The goalposts are pretty wide so there’s not much pressure.

Daytona 500- Kyle Busch

I’ve made this pick before and I’m not the only one making it this year. NASCAR loves its storybook moments, so how about Kyle Busch, who comes off a winless season and trying to finally win the Daytona 500 in his 20th attempt in a Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet? Sound familiar?

Coca-Cola 600- Chase Briscoe

Chase Briscoe could be in for a big year replacing Martin Truex Jr. at Joe Gibbs Racing. This race barely got away from Briscoe in 2022 after an awesome battle with Kyle Larson. Joe Gibbs Racing has won this race two of the last three years, and Briscoe showed at Darlington that he can meet the moment in the biggest races.

Brickyard 400- Ryan Blaney

Every year the Cup series runs at Indianapolis we have to wonder if Team Penske will pull off the double. I won’t make an Indianapolis 500 pick, but I will say Ryan Blaney will do his part. This race was so close to being his a year ago, if not for an unfortunately timed restart where Brad Keselowski ran out of fuel. A former Coca-Cola 600 winner, Blaney will join Briscoe in adding a second crown jewel to his resume.

Southern 500- Christopher Bell

Darlington is a driver’s track and Christopher Bell has shown to be one of the absolute best talents in the sport. He has two top-five finishes in the last three Southern 500s, and he will start a championship push with a big win in the playoff opener.

5. Denny Hamlin Starts To Decline

For a myriad of reasons, the vibes with the No. 11 team don’t seem good at the moment. Between a late season penalty, a frustrating playoff run, a lawsuit against NASCAR and the loss of FedEx, things have definitely been better for Denny Hamlin. Hamlin started the 2024 season great but struggled mightily to close the season, with JGR as a whole going winless for the final 18 races. Now, Hamlin has to start from scratch with a new crew chief, as Chris Gabehart is leaving the position in exchange for Chris Gayle. Hamlin will win a race, maybe two, as he’s still too good to drop off that much. However, his days as a serious championship threat may be over.

6. Austin Cindric Builds On His Positive Momentum

The 2024 season was desperately needed for Austin Cindric. He scored a huge win at WWT Raceway and was among the strongest drivers at the six drafting track races. He had a decent playoff run as well before getting knocked out after the Charlotte Roval. He showed dramatic improvement in each of his Xfinity seasons, and it appears he is finally figuring out the Cup series. I’m bullish on the Columbus, OH, native going into his fourth season.

7. Kaulig Racing Sells At Least One Charter

I was down on Kaulig Racing in 2024 and I’m even lower on them this year. Aj Allmendinger is back in Cup, with much less momentum than he had in 2023 after a mediocre Xfinity season. However, the big change is Ty Dillon joining his fifth Cup series team in six years after a tough season at Rackley WAR in the truck series. There is very little to be excited about for this team in Cup, aside from Allmendinger being a possible threat on road courses. It doesn’t feel like this team has long-term potential on Sundays. I expect them to sell at least one charter after seeing the demand for Stewart-Haas’ old charters. I like their Xfinity series moves, specifically bringing in Christian Eckes. It may make more sense for them to go back to devoting all their resources to Xfinity and work as a feeder team for Chevrolet.

8. Riley Herbst Finishes Top-25 In Points

Making picks on how rookies will perform is tricky. I don’t pick them to win races (I broke my own rule for Ty Gibbs) and the expectations can vary depending on driver experience and the ride. A lot of people didn’t like 23XI Racing choosing Riley Herbst, but I think he can do good things in the car. The 2024 season was an impressive one for Herbst in Xfinity, where he scored two wins and was in the top-eight in the points standings all year long. He has shown promise in his select Cup starts as well, primarily at drafting tracks. Will he win Rookie of the Year? Maybe not, but he’s in a good car and definitely won’t embarrass himself on Sundays.

9. The Kids Will Be Alright

I don’t predict Cup rookies to win, but I make no such rule for the Xfinity series. This year’s rookie class is absolutely loaded, with the likes of Connor Zilisch, Carson Kvapil, Christian Eckes, Nick Sanchez, William Sawalich and Taylor Gray moving up the development ladder. Here’s my official prediction: at least five Xfinity rookies will win this season. Zilisch already has a win at Watkins Glen last year. So many of them are in proven, race-winning caliber equipment and will show it. This season is going to be a lot of fun.

Before we close, let’s hammer out some other predictions…

Will Austin Hill win the Xfinity season opener again? Yes

Where will Ty Gibbs win? Dover

How many flips in Cup? Three

How many new playoff drivers? 3

New tracks for 2025? Rockingham and North Wilkesboro, make it happen

Does the Phoenix winner make the Championship 4? No

10. Championship Picks

Now we get to the moment I’m sure you’ve all been waiting for…

Truck series

Most wins- Corey Heim (7)

Championship 4- Corey Heim, Chandler Smith, Daniel Hemric, Ty Majeski

Champion- Corey Heim

This feels like a two-horse race once again, which makes me second-guess not picking Ty Majeski to repeat. Heim is a stud, and him leaving the truck series without a title would be a huge injustice.

Xfinity Series

Most wins- Austin Hill and Sam Mayer (5)

Championship 4- Austin Hill, Sam Mayer, Connor Zilisch, Justin Allgaier

Champion- Connor Zilisch

Yes, I’m picking the rookie to win the championship. Connor Zilisch has won in everything he has run, and I expect him to do the same in Xfinity with one of the best teams he could ask for.

Cup series

Most wins- Kyle Larson (7)

Championship 4- Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson

Champion- Christopher Bell

Christopher Bell was done wrong last year, and it possibly cost him a championship. If there is any doubt who the best driver at Joe Gibbs Racing is, Bell will put those questions to rest and score redemption with a Cup series title.