2025 St. Louis Blues Outlook

It’s been 52 days since the St. Louis Blues season ended, which means it’s time to stop repeating "1.6 seconds" in the corner and start looking forward to what’s to come.

Let’s get one thing clear- as brutal as the end of the 2024-25 season was, it was still objectively a good season for the Blues. Between ballsy offer sheets, a great midseason trade, a wild upgrade in head coach and continued development, Blues fans should be left with nothing but hope for the future. In fact, between the Blues down years and the Cardnials futility, St. Louis hasn’t had this much optimism about one of its teams since Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado struck out in the eighth inning against the Phillies in 2022.

While there’s a lot to build on from the season that was, GM Doug Armstrong has not left himself with much cap space to play with in his last season before Alex Steen takes over. According to PuckPedia, the Blues have $5.03 million in cap space at the moment, with RFA Joel Hofer and UFA Radek Faksa being the main guys they need to sign.

In a perfect world, the Blues would sign both players, as they would like to avoid having Hofer sign an offer sheet. According to Armstrong, they will match any potential offer sheet on Hofer unless the return would be a first round pick. Even then, the Blues would consider matching.

Hofer is the starter in waiting until Binnington either falls off a cliff or his contract expires in 2027. Faksa, meanwhile, centered the most reliable line the Blues had- the WTF line consisting of him, Nathan Walker and Alexei Toropchenko. He’s not flashy, but to say he was reliable would be an understatement.

However, some cap will need to be shed for both to be done comfortably.

Two spots seem the most obvious to clear for cap purposes- Nick Leddy and one of Mathieu Joseph or Alex Texier. Leddy, a reliable top pair defenseman at his best, has regressed every year in St. Louis while being owed $4 million for one more year. Texier and Joseph fought for games on the third line for much of the season, with Joseph getting the lion’s share of appearances (60 to 31). 

Armstrong, however, seems to like Texier and cited him getting more opportunities for the team getting rid of Brandon Saad late in the season. However, a lot has changed since then, particularly Jimmy Snuggerud coming in from the University of Minnesota and immediately lapping both Joseph and Texier and establishing himself as a future 30+ goal scorer.

In a perfect world, the Blues would find suitors for both of them. That’s because Jimmy Snuggerud established himself as an everyday NHL player in his small sample size while Dalibor Dvorsky is waiting in the wings as well.

Dvorsky is seemingly the most important factor in this offseason. He needs to play, NHL or AHL be damned. Armstrong has been on record saying that the team is “not going to fail” the 10th overall pick in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.

Armstrong has his work cut out for him. He needs to find Dvorsky a spot, even though the Blues have always been an “earn your minutes” organization. 

They also need a middle-six center, ideally second line. Captain Brayden Schenn is serviceable enough at the 2C, but is starting to age into a third liner. Meanwhile, Oskar Sundqvist has struggled since coming back from a torn ACL, and an upgrade seems like all but a given.

The third-line center role could be an opening for Dvorsky to jump in and establish himself, but the Blues also have some options in the free agency and trade markets. Sam Bennett’s Conn Smythe run is going to earn him more than the Blues can afford to pay, and John Tavares and Mikael Granlund are veteran options who may not fit into the Blues’ timeline.

If the Blues are looking for a more affordable option, they might look at a player like Pius Suter. No relation to Ryan, Suter is coming off a career-high 25 goals and 46 points in 81 games for the Vancouver Canucks. He’s not a flashy player, but he does the little things right and could serve as a great mentor for young European players like Dvorsky and Otto Stenberg.

It’s worth mentioning that Robert Thomas started his career, and notably won the Stanley Cup, as a winger in 2019 to the right of Tyler Bozak. Ideally, that could be a great way to incorporate Dvorsky into the NHL full time, perhaps on Schenn’s wing.

However, someone would have to move out to make that happen.

The Blues are pretty stacked at wing, including Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich (signed at $8+ mil for multiple years), Jake Neighbours (signed a bridge deal this season), Holloway (eligible for an extension on July 1), and Bolduc and Snuggerud (still on entry level contracts).

That’s three lines worth of wingers pretty well set, meaning that Dvorsky will likely be on the outside looking in if the Blues make an external upgrade at center.

Could the Blues trade one of the seven players I mentioned? Sure, but it doesn’t seem likely.

If they were to trade one, maybe they could use it to fix their right-side defense. David Pagnotta of the Fourth Period has reported that the Blues have inquired about Noah Dobson of the New York Islanders. Undoubtedly a solid all-around defenseman, Dobson would demand a high return to the Islanders as well as a big contract. Reports have come in that he is seeking up to $11 million on his next deal, as he is set to become an RFA when free agency opens up. He won’t get that, but he’s still not going to be cheap.

This trade would be a double-edged sword for the Blues. On one hand, Dobson would revitalize the top-four and have an impact particularly on 5-6 defense, which was something Armstrong mentioned as needing to be addressed after the season. 

On the other hand, what would Armstrong be comfortable moving, especially with the money Dobson would demand? He could trade Kyrou before his no trade clause kicks in, but that seems like a gamble he historically doesn’t take. Does he trade someone like Bolduc or Dvorsky? That doesn’t seem likely, as he rarely trades top prospects, and doing so right before Alexander Steen takes over would seem very out of character. That also wouldn’t solve the issue of fitting under the salary cap.

Assuming the Blues don’t pull that trigger, there are two intriguing free agent options- Aaron Ekblad and Dante Fabbro. Ekblad, 29, is the top option after a sensational postseason that saw him and the Florida Panthers win their second consecutive Stanley Cup. He will likely cash in now that he’s had his moment in the sun.

Fabbro, however, could be a perfect fit for the Blues. After getting waived by Nashville, the 2016 first-round pick looked right at home to the right of Zach Werenski. The 27-year old could come in at under $5 million per season, a price the Blues could easily stomach with a rising cap.

Between the two spots, Armstrong said that the middle-six center was the bigger hole to fill. Armstrong, according to his comments, still views Justin Faulk as a member of the top four. It seems unlikely that he would add a third pair RHD when Faulk and Colton Parayko each make $6.5 million and one of Tyler Tucker or Matthew Kessel could fill the spot for much cheaper.

As mentioned, there is plenty of positive momentum to take from the 24-25 season, but the Blues can’t afford to sit on their heels. The Utah Mammoth in particular are gunning for that second wild card spot. 

Already boasting a star-studded young core, the Mammoth won the fourth pick in the draft in the lottery. There’s a chance they take it and take someone like Caleb Desnoyers, but rumors have circled about them trading the pick for immediate help. Whether that’s someone like Dobson, Bowen Byram or JJ Peterka, they are making it no secret that they plan to compete with the best of them.

The new rebrand the Blues unveiled on Tuesday is the start of a new era, with guys like Thomas, Schenn and Parayko the leaders today, and Snuggerud, Neighbours, Dvorsky and Bolduc the future. This past year was a taste of what the future could bring, and this offseason can continue to send the franchise into the right direction.