10+ Predictions For '24

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It’s hard to believe that this is already my fourth year of writing about NASCAR.

Now that the sport’s winter hibernation is coming to an end, it’s time to get back into gear and prepare for NASCAR’s 76th season. A lot has changed since we last tried to predict what was going to happen- Kevin Harvick has retired, Legacy Motor Club is now at Toyota and Ryan Blaney went from a frustrating winless season to one of the most unexpected championships of the 21st century.

Amidst it all, the 2024 Cup series appears to be one of the most loaded lineups in years. From top to bottom, the talent is second to none and parity will continue to be the name of the game. All three series have drivers to keep your eye on and are sure to deliver some thrilling moments. 

Let’s not waste any time, here are my 10+ Predictions for the 2024 season.

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1. Brad Keselowski ends his winless streak

Arguably no driver made a bigger one-year improvement from 2022-2023 than Brad Keselowski. The 2012 champion improved his average finish by nearly five whole spots, with six more top-fives and over 100 more laps led to go with it. All he is missing is his first win as a co-owner of RFK Racing, the most improved team of last year. That season was no fluke, both Keselowski and Chris Buescher are talented and have shown that they can turn heads. Keselowski has a great chance to win his first race since April 2021 and don’t be surprised if it happens early in the year. Last year, Keselowski just missed out on wins in both races at Atlanta, which is now the second race of the year. First impressions are hard to get over and Keselowski is going to leave quite a big one to start the 2024 season.

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2. Joe Gibbs Racing’s Xfinity hires pay off

Toyota never should have let Chandler Smith go but they managed to get him back after a year, crisis averted. Smith showed superstar potential in his two years driving Kyle Busch’s trucks and is only 21 years old. Joe Gibbs Racing is arguably the best Xfinity team, there is no reason Smith can’t have the season John Hunter Nemechek had last year. 

On the other hand, this is the third year I have had high expectations for Sheldon Creed, a driver who leaves what appeared to be a toxic situation at Richard Childress Racing. When your owner publicly calls you the stupidest driver to ever race for his team after an incident that wasn’t even really your fault, there is no saving that relationship. Creed needs to win this year and he needs to do it early and often. He knows how to win races, he showed that in trucks. There is no driver in 2024 that has more to prove than Creed, who now has Toyota power underneath him. Both of these drivers are going to make a statement on Saturdays.

Photo: Legacy Motor Club

3. Erik Jones makes the Playoffs

In 2022, I was a year early in predicting both RFK cars to make the playoffs. After watching Erik Jones’ second half, something tells me I was a year early once again. Last year was a disaster, there’s no getting around that. His stats went down across the board as Legacy Motor Club experienced some embarrassing moments. Even though the numbers didn’t show it, Jones was one of the most noticeable drivers in the second half, running in the top-10 multiple times in the playoffs. Now the team is at Toyota for good and Jones has a talented teammate in John Hunter Nemechek. Jones has the talent to be a top driver in NASCAR and 2024 is a great opportunity to show that.

Photo: Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

4. Crown Jewel Winners

As usual, I will take my best guess on NASCAR’s four crown jewels. Now that the Brickyard 400 has returned to the schedule, it will take Bristol’s spot amongst the four majors. In two years of doing this, one of my picks has won and one of my picks got suspended.

Daytona 500- Chris Buescher

The last three Daytona 500s have seen two first-time winners and a driver score his first win in over five years. We haven’t exactly been seeing the Jeff Gordons and Jimmie Johnsons like in the 2000s. I like Chris Buescher, who was very strong in last year’s 500 before winning in the summer. If you remember my first prediction, you’ll know what this means- I predict RFK to sweep the opening two races.

Coca-Cola 600- William Byron

Here’s a stat- five of the last six Coca-Cola 600 winners have made the Championship 4 and two have won it. This seems like a William Byron race, who was runner-up last year and won twice on mile-and-a-half tracks in 2023. We know he’s a title threat and can win any given week, it’s about time he starts adding some big wins to his resume.

Brickyard 400- Joey Logano

Joey Logano has been known for winning at new tracks. While the Brickyard 400 isn’t an inaugural race, they’re running it for the first time in four years and the first time in the Next-Gen car. Logano has had some close calls at this race, most notably in 2015. Team Penske’s history at Indianapolis is well noted and they will have a chance to do what Chip Ganassi did in 2010- win both the Indy 500 and the Brickyard 400 in the same year.

Southern 500- Ross Chastain

Similar to William Byron, it’s time for Ross Chastain to start delivering some crown jewel wins. Darlington has historically been a pretty good track for Chastain, between his breakout Xfinity performance in 2018, running third in the 2021 Southern 500 and showing race-winning speed in the 2022 and 2023 Goodyear 400s. We saw a new, more controlled Chastain in the second half of last year, capped off with a win in the Championship race. The Melon Man is due for a big year.

Photo: Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

5. The Truck Series becomes a two-horse race

Last year’s truck series Championship race was an embarrassment, check out my Honest Thoughts on the Playoff Format if you want more on that race. However, can anyone remember who won that race? It was actually Christian Eckes, who scored his fourth win of the season. If Eckes held on to win Bristol or hadn’t thrown a bad block at Talladega, he could’ve been the 2023 Truck series champion. The breakthrough of Eckes was nice to see, as he has shown promise ever since his truck series debut back in 2018. Bill McAnally Racing is now a three-truck team, swapping Jake Garcia for Tyler Ankrum and Daniel Dye. Sometimes this can have a negative effect on a team but Eckes is still clearly the top driver at the team. Now that Zane Smith and Carson Hocevar have gone to Cup, there are bound to be some new faces at the top of the charts. Eckes is a good pick.

However, the face of the Truck series is easily Corey Heim. Heim had arguably the best Truck series year since Erik Jones in 2015, winning three times and leading the series in top-fives and top-10s. Heim would’ve won the full season title by 111 points even though he missed a race. Make no mistake- we are going to see Heim racing on Sundays sooner than later. Much like with Eckes, Heim has a chance to reel off wins like they’re going out style thanks to a weakened lineup. The 2024 Truck series is going to be the tale of these two young stars.

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6. Austin Hill and Shane Van Gisbergen find their way into 2025 Cup rides

It’s a surprise to some that Austin Hill is still running in the Xfinity series. Hill had an impressive regular season with four wins and appeared to be the frontrunner for the Kaulig Racing No. 31 car that went to Daniel Hemric. He will likely get a couple starts in the No. 33 car throughout the season and remains one of the frontrunners for the Xfinity series crown. Turning 30 this year, Hill is going to look for his chance in a Cup car sooner than later. If there is one driver that should be worried about Hill’s potential Cup ride, it’s Austin Dillon. Yes, he is the grandson of Richard Childress Racing. However, racing is a business and Dillon had one of the worst seasons in the history of the team last year. The pressure is on for the 2018 Daytona 500 champion.

Shane Van Gisbergen is the most intriguing Xfinity series driver in years. After pulling off maybe the biggest upset in NASCAR history, the New Zealand is in the states for good, moving from Supercars to stock cars and firing off in the No. 97 car. While his contract is with Trackhouse Racing, he will be driving for Kaulig Racing through a partnership. Make no mistake- Van Gisbergen will be in the Cup series full time soon. He already has a win and did not move across the world to race in the Xfinity series. With Zane Smith driving at Spire Motorsports in 2024 using a Trackhouse charter, the team has four drivers going for three chartered rides. The odd man out appears to be Daniel Suarez, the driver the team was originally built around. Suarez has proven to be a solid driver, but he doesn’t have Ross Chastain’s sponsors, Smith’s current trajectory or Van Gisbergen’s worldwide interest. Unless more charter maneuvering takes place, Suarez may be out the door. However, he likely won’t have to look far for his next ride.

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7. Kaulig Racing flounders

Aside from Shane Van Gisergen’s arrival and Aj Allmendinger’s return to Xfinity, there isn’t much to look forward to with Kaulig Racing’s 2024 plans. On the Cup side, the No. 16 car is still a mystery outside of Allmendinger’s starts. There are reports of Ty Dillon getting some starts while driving in the Truck series, which adds to an already underwhelming lineup. As for the No. 31 car, Justin Haley had a bad year in 2023 but Daniel Hemric is an uninspiring replacement. He’s a serviceable driver, sure, but he is not the face of a Cup team by any means. It appears that these moves upset Chandler Smith, the team’s major prospect who left the team after one year and one win. Now Hemric’s ride will be filled by Josh Williams, a nice story after grinding out some nice runs for Mario Gosselin’s team, but an unproven driver to put it kindly. Sure the addition of Daniel Dye and likely return of Derek Kraus are intriguing as part time options, but this team seems to have lose the aura they had a couple of seasons ago. Once the brightest up-and-coming team in NASCAR appears to have bit off more than they could chew too early.

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8. No Cup driver will be forced to miss time

In the past two years, Bubba Wallace, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman and Noah Gragson have all missed races for either injuries or suspension, or both in the cases of Elliott and Gragson. That doesn’t even include Kurt Busch, who was forced to retire following a qualifying crash two years ago. NASCAR has been quick to learn from its mistakes, improving the rear of the cars after Busch and Bowman’s injuries and making changes to Nashville Superspeedway after Ryan Blaney found a wall without a SAFER barrier. It’s not just NASCAR that has learned, as Wallace and Elliott’s suspensions showed the effects of right-rearing a driver into the wall. Drivers are tough, just look at what Ryan Preece went through at Daytona. Drivers will behave and will take care of themselves, marking the first time since 2019 that all of the top-30 in points will run all 36 races.

Photo: Matt Sullivan | Getty Images

9. Highlighted by Iowa, the Cup Series sees improved short track racing

No matter the track, inaugural races are always an exciting time for fans. Iowa has been waiting for this moment since 2009 and, seeing what they’ve done with IndyCar, they know how to throw a party. NASCAR fans are definitely going to embrace a short track that isn’t in the southeast. Speaking of short track racing, that has been arguably the biggest flaw through two years of the Next Gen car, but an improvement may be coming. The fix will include a reduced floor piece underneath the car. According to Jeff Gluck of the Athletic, this will lead to less downforce and more maneuverability, in theory leading to more passing. While this isn’t as extreme a measure as adding horsepower, something fans and OEMs appear to want, this should be a start toward getting short track racing back to where it belongs, as some of NASCAR’s absolute best and most memorable racing. The drivers haven’t forgotten how to run them, time will tell if this change pays off or more wholesale changes will be needed ahead of the 2025 season.

Before we get to my championship picks, let’s quickly answer some burning questions for this season.

Does Alex Bowman’s Daytona 500 front row streak continue? Yes

Where does Ty Gibbs break through? Pocono

How many flips in Cup? Two

Who wins the Cup series Rookie of the Year? Josh Berry

How many new faces in the playoffs? Four

Will any new tracks be added for 2025? Montreal and North Wilkesboro, Rockingham gets the All Star Race

Does Martin Truex Jr. retire after 2024? Yes

Does the spring Phoenix winner make the Championship 4? Yes

Does he win the title? No

Photo: Sean Gardner | Getty Images

10. Championship picks

Truck Series

Most wins: Corey Heim (5)

Championship 4: Corey Heim, Christian Eckes, Ty Majeski, Nick Sanchez

Champion: Corey Heim

Last year’s Truck championship was an embarrassment on all levels. That won’t be the case this year, as Corey Heim is going to show that he is a Cup star in the making.

Xfinity Series

Most wins: Aj Allmendinger (6)

Championship 4: Aj Allmendinger, Cole Custer, Chandler Smith, Sam Mayer

Champion: Cole Custer

Cole Custer only got stronger as the season went along last year. Now that he has the monkey off of his back, look for him to go back to back and make his case for a Cup series return.

Cup Series

Most wins: William Byron and Tyler Reddick (5)

Championship 4: Chase Elliott, William Byron, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick

Champion: William Byron

William Byron’s 2023 season was no fluke. After showing that he belongs up there amongst NASCAR’s top drivers, he will finish the job at Phoenix and get the No. 24 back to the top.